transport planning modelling

Transport planning is notoriously difficult. Apart from the theoretical complexities of efficient network planning, there are many external and difficult-to-control factors that contribute to operational and financial performance. Combine this with users understandably intolerant to waiting and delays and the potential to get things badly wrong is huge.

Often, the processes and interdependencies are so complex that it can take many months just to come up with one workable plan, let alone to try and compare options and to prepare contingency plans. Assessments of how reliable the service will be, and how can it be made resilient when faced with unscheduled interruptions, equipment breakdowns, adverse weather, staff seasonal sickness and other irregular events often aren't even considered.

This is where a Paragon model comes in. Quite apart from using sophisticated mathematical optimisation techniques, Paragon models can also simulate the impact of discrete real world irregularities and problems that can make even the most carefully constructed plans fail. Paragon's unique scenario management solution - exiio - makes it easy and quick to try different options and trade-offs and compare the results.

Paragon models can also be used to calculate costs and how they will vary relative to income in the face of fluctuating demand and for 'on-the-fly' re-planning. Because a new scenario can be simulated in just hours, a model can be used as a tool to handle late schedule changes and crisis situations as they happen, so that the impact of decisions made at very short notice can be understood.